Wednesday, February 19, 2014

New alliances are on the way



New alliances are on the way while old alliances are diminishing or transforming

Study of recent diplomatic ties in Middle East is at interesting turn. Is the world is changing again?
Recent abrupt Rise in anti-drone campaign has roots not in  FATA but somewhere else. According to Guardian's writer Jonathan Sale "In 1916, a military scientist conceived of an "aerial torpedo" designed to be loaded with explosives and steered into the deadly Zeppelins on their bombing raids over southern England". His article published in Feb 2013 under the title "The secret history of drones". Drone attacks were in news at-least from 2004, yet in the 2nd decade we observed its opposition more from the "friends or old partners" then from its traditional opponents. Although it is a violation of Nation State System yet the question is Where were Amnesty People from 2004?
Is there any shifting of players on cards?  We may smell this invisible change by checking recent shifts of different conflicting Nation States, either big or small, developed or under developed. 
India was a cold war partner of former USSR yet from 2000 it has dramatically changed enough. You can even check this change on the roads of New Delhi. India's shift to US camp happened in the first decade of 21st century and now fear of Moodi is haunting? Will India act as New Frontline State against China? Or transform its strengths in trade other than war industry?  It largely depends on US rather than Indians.
Another new alliance in making is Britain-Saudi Arab ties. Till Atlantic charter of 1941, Britain was the biggest world power yet in planned cold war US chose Euro-Asian USSR as major rival player. In his autobiography, Tony Blair explained diplomatic anxiety of UK to influence world politics again yet post 9/11 scenario damaged its efforts temporarily.  Rejecting war with Iran and neutralizing Syria is another shock while entry of Turkey as a new important player is enough to understand new alliances. SA rejection of the non permanent seat in UN is sign of anxiety. On the other hand, her regional rival Iran is again in friendship mode with "imperialism" which is interesting too. Turkey is enjoying its new status yet Pakistan tries to explore middle path. Future of Scino-US relations may neutralize Pakistan’s diplomatic anxiety.

Every first 20 years of a new century, at least from last three centuries proved crucial regarding re-alliances of forces.Iin early years of 19th century Fear of Napoleon and in early 20th century Fear of Germany led the world politics.
Fear for recent century is already set yet this time it is Invisible enemy. In a way it is more dangerous than previous vissible threats. Cat will come out of beg soon.
Is there a message in this shifting or not, it is up to you to think.
 in 2013, November i wrote an article on this issue
http://www.wichaar.com/news/118/ARTICLE/30184/2013-11-10.html


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