Tuesday, May 28, 2013

How we should gauge popularity of any political party? percentage of vote castes or Seats of assemblies

How we should gauge popularity of any political party?  percentage of vote castes or Seats of assemblies 

aamir riaz
These days media is making claims regarding popularity of political parties. Today in his program Kamran khan declared PTI , 2nd largest political party of Pakistan regarding percentage of votes PTI got in 2013 elections. according to ECP latest updates PPP is runners up and far head from PTI regarding National assembly seats yet analysts are relaying on percentage of votes. ironically, at ECP website there is no comparison of seats but emphasis is on percentage of votes. this is relatively new technique and is adopted due to some obvious biases or likes. Interestingly, PTI got almost 76 lak votes while PPP got 69 lak yet PPP gained more seats. Percentage of votes cannot be treated as a gauge to check popularity. for example if we study election results in provinces we see contrary figures. i-e In Sindh after PPP & MQM, national people's party got maximum votes regarding ratio ( PPP almost 32 lak- MQM 25 lak, NPP 2 lak, PTI 60000, PML(N) 59000) so What it means? Before declaring PTI, no.2 popular party analysts should rationalize their claims. Another interesting example is KPK results where the difference of votes between single largest PTI with 13 seat winner PML(N) is only 1,50000 yet difference in seats is almost three times. so can we says that regarding popularity PTI and PML(N) are on equal footings. In final analysis no of seats is the only criteria to gauge success and one should not confuse it with popularity.

you can easily check ECP website where votes obtained got more prominent coverage than seats obtained. 
detaeen  hain Bazi-gar Dhoka khula

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