Dollar, Petrol , Corona & Imran Khan ( July 2017-April 2022)

 Dollar, Petrol , Corona & Imran Khan ( July 2017-April 2022)

In July 2017, thanks to misleading Panama Case, the longest serving Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif was removed but the reason of removal was not tricky Panama Papers but Iqama. It was beginning of the Naya Pakistan project that unfolded after July 2018 and proved a shame for all his Pasdarans. But here we will only analyses it as par Oil Prices and huge increase of Dollar and massive rather unprecedented depreciation of Pak Rupee. No doubt, in post 1970 world, Dolar & Oil are big realities and both can play more dangerous role than weapon of mass destruction. 

When Nawaz Sharif was removed Dollar rate was 104 Pak rupees and it was due to a declared policy by than Finance Minister Ishaq Dar who want to ensure progress of the country by controlling $. He successfully did it but what happened after July 2017 is history. 

As par credible data when Imran Khan took office Oil prices were as high as 102 $ per barrel but till December same year it decreased to 64$. Till December 2019, it remained fluctuating between 67 and 76 but thanks to Corona it unprecedented decreased till 22$ in April 2020. In December 2020 it was 47 $ yet till one year back it reached till 76$. In January 1st 2022, the price was 72$. 

For Oil prices CLICK HERE

Oil prices were low in 2020 and 2021 but Pakistan could not took it's full benefit because in post Ishaq Dar period no one ready to control the Dollar. It was Dar who was very confident in August 2016 and said "Pakistan will soon stop looking towards IMF for assistance. The last session with IMF is underway right now," Dar said in an interview to Dawn online on Monday. We will not go to IMF for assistance, Dar added. The Finance Minister said that by 2050, Pakistan will become the 18th biggest economic nation across the world, Dawn online reported. Earlier, a senior IMF official said that Pakistan's economy was gradually gaining strength and its short-term vulnerabilities were also receding.

From 2013 till 2017 he controlled Dollar at Rs 106, and it had disturbed UK, US returned economists very much and when time came IMF too took the revenge and Pakistani media, as usual sided with post colonial economic god. Mr Shahbaz Rana story IMF distances itself from Ishaq Dar's 'Finance Minister of the Year' award in the Tribune was a proof. NAB was there to fix him. If Pakistan had Dollar Rate of 106 rupee in 2019, 2020, 2021 Pakistan can benefit a lot and IMF lost its importance too. 

For Dollar rates year by year click here

 

Both charts proved that when oil prices were low we had increased Dollar price and under IMF instructions PTI government stop both the State & the government for interference in dollar price control. It was a complete departure from Dar doctrine. 

In January 1st the oil price in international market was 72 $ per barrel but if you scan January chart there was a continuous rise in oil prices and till 31st Jan it reached at 84 $. On the other hand Dollar was increasing, thanks to IMF hitman, appointed by Imran Khan as head of State Bank of Pakistan in May 2019. In October 2021, it was same Raza Baqir who nakedly advocated depreciation of Pak rupee and praised increase in dollar prices. His logic shocked many in Pakistan including Yousaf Nazar of The Friday Times. Dawn reproduced Raza Baqir below the belt statement at 21 October 2021 as, 

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Reza Baqir on Wednesday said the depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar had benefitted overseas Pakistanis sending remittances to the country.

It clearly shows the priorities of IMF, Imran Khan etc. Till October the dollar rate was 171 rupee and in Jan it crossed 175. So in Jan both rates of $ as well as Oil were started increasing simultaneously. Had Pakistan purchased LNG from Qatar timely, Oil prices could not bother her but same Imran Khan did not do it. Did IMF stopped him? or he had some problem with Qatar? 

January 2022 was beginning of the end of Imran Khan order. May be he was fully aware from it because when both Oil and Dollar will increase it would disturb all power players too. In May 06, 2022 he said I became aware of conspiracy against my govt last year: Imran Khan. At international front everyone was taking about Russia Ukraine conflict. It was clear that in this situation Pakistan will be in deep sea within 6 months. At February 02, 2022, The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2021 Article IV Consultation with Pakistan. The Executive Board also completed the sixth review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan, allowing the authorities to draw the equivalent of SDR 750 million (about US$1 billion).

In such a crucial times, as par agreement Government of Imran Khan had to do many things as

“Strong efforts to advance electricity sector reform are needed to restore the sector's financial viability and address adverse spillovers on the budget, financial sector, and real economy. The IFI-supported Circular Debt Management Plan (CDMP) will help to guide the planned management improvements, cost reductions, alignment of tariffs with cost recovery levels, and better targeting of subsidies to the most vulnerable.

At February 24, Russian Iron man Putin announced a special military operation  to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine and at that time Imran Khan was in Moscow and the visit proved an all time failure. It was a time when he was losing his partners and joint opposition was ready to launch final move of No-Confidence against Imran Khan. Newspaper wrote at 23rd February 2022 as

Political activity over the last few days suggests that they are planning something in parliament in the coming days. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has asked its legislators who are not in Pakistan to return home immediately and those in the country not to leave for the next few days. On Monday, PML-N chief Shahbaz Sharif, who is the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, met with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari and Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) Chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman to discuss a no-confidence motion against Khan.  

At Feb 28, when oil price was 92 $ per barrel & Dollar rate was 177 rupees, no confidence was ready, Imran khan announced the slashing of petroleum products’ price by Rs10 per litre and electricity tariff by Rs5 per unit but its economic cost was unbearable. Experts said The move is designed to claw back some political space in the face of mounting threats from the opposition. The fuel and power price reductions are likely to produce a short term disinflationary impact, but eventually they could have the opposite effect if an appropriate financing plan is not in place to help meet their cost. If the moves end up derailing the fund program, this will be the second time the government has backed out of its commitments after receiving the money. The program was already dogged by questions over its ownership and these concerns are likely to be amplified now. Derailment of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program will have strong ramifications for the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves, eventually leading to another increase in inflation.

it was much before Donald Lu infamous letter presented by PTI Chairman as an American conspiracy in late March. In the first week of March Oil prices jumped at 118 $ and Dollar rate was Rs 179. it is interesting to know that instead of promoting alternative energy , the government of Imran Khan had imposed sales tax on Solar Panels. 

The government’s decision to impose 17 per cent sales tax on solar panels, inverters and related equipment will jeopardise the very essence of the National Renewable Energy Policy which aims to acquire a 30 per cent share of renewables in energy mix by 2030.

The anxiety of isolated Imran Khan much before March 7 was visible. He knew that it is result of its bad economic policies and even his supporters are very angry but like an over smart guy (Siana Kaan in Punjabi) he had floated a novel idea of international American (noted not British) conspiracy against him and linked no-confidence move with it. He knew that he had lost confidence of majority MPs in the National Assembly so he tried his best to delay the assembly session. Now a regime change was essential to change all bad policies but Imran Khan had used al unconstitutional, undemocratic methods to stop his constitutional removal. 

At June 9, 2022 Oil rat is 122 dollar, it slightly decreased at 10 june till 120 $. Similarly $ rate was 202 rupees till 31 May but at june 10 it is 198 but it needs little attention 

عالمی منڈی میں تیل کی قیمتیں، ڈالر کی اونچی پرواز اور حکمرانوں کے غلط فیصلے۔ ڈالر کی قدر

 بڑھنے اور تیل کی قیمت میں اضافے سے پاکستان پر دہرا معاشی حملہ ہو رہا تھا مگر سابق

 وزیراعظم ٹس سے مس نہ ہوئے تھے۔ تیل کی عالمی مندی میں بلوم برگ کی ویب سائٹ کے مطابق جنوری 2022 سے اضافوں کا رجحان تھا کیونکہ روس یوکرین تنازعہ بگڑ رہا تھا، یکم جنوری

 کو تیل کی قیمت 72 الر فی بیرل تھی جس میں آج تک پورے 50 ڈالر کا اجافہ ہو چکا ہے۔ 31

 جنوری تک تیل کی قیمت 12 ڈالر بڑھ کے 84 الر تک پہنچ چکی تھی۔ فروری میں یہ تیزی برقرار

رہی کہ 24 فروری کو روس کی یوکرین میں کاروائی کے بعد دو مارچ کو یہ قیمت 105 ڈالر تک جا پہنچی۔ ڈالر کی قیمت کو کنٹرول کرنے اور تیل کے متبادل ذرائع اور بچت کی طرف قوم کو متوجہ

 کرنے کی بجائے عمران خان نے تیل کی قیمتوں میں کمی کا اعلان کرتے ہوئے ریاست کو مزید

 مشکلات میں ڈال دیا۔ معیشت سے کھلواڑ جیسے فیصلوں سے وہ عدم اعتماد کو تو نہ ٹال سکے البتہ پاکستان اس سے دوہرے معاشی ھملے میں گھر گیا اور وسط اپریل میں بننے والی نئی حکومت اج

 بھی اس سے نمٹنے میں لگی ہے۔

 

جب عمران خان نے اقتدار سنبھالا تو تیل کی قیمت 102 ڈالر فی بیرل تھی جو دسمبر2018 تک

 64 ڈالر تک گر گئی تھی۔ دسمبر 2019 تک یہ قیمت 76 ڈالر تک پہنچی۔ کرونا کی وجہ سے 30 اپریل 2020 تک تیل کی قیمت 22 ڈالر پر آ چکی تھی۔ جنوری 2021 تک تیل کی قیمت 47

 ڈالر تک رہی۔ ایک سال پہلے تک یعنی 30 جون 2021 کو بھی عالمی منڈی میں تیل کی قیمت 65 ڈالر تک ہی بڑھی تھی۔ اگست 2018 سے اپریل 2022 تک پاکستان میں روپئے کی قدر کم کی گئی کہ جو 115 روپئے سے 190 تک جا پہنچی کہ 75 روپئے بڑھنے سے تیل کی کم قیمت کا جو

 ملک کو فائدہ ہونا تھا وہ نہ ہو سکا۔ ذرا سوچیں اگر ڈالر 106 روپئے ہوتا اور تیل کی قیمت 22 ڈالر ہوتی تو پاکستان اس دوران کسقدر معاشی فوائد سمیٹتا۔ آج ڈالر 202 روپئ ہے جبکہ تیل 122

 ڈالر فی بیرل تک جا پہنچا ہے کہ ڈالر کی قیمت کو اگر پاکستان قابو کر لے تو اس کی معاشی مشکلات کم ہو سکتی ہیں۔