Shifting political sands in Punjab
After recent flawed elections intellectuals are trying to understand it. Urdu Speaking economist & Ex adviser of Sindh government Dr Kaiser Bengali too try it yet he largely missed many facts, the most important is Rise & Fall in Pak India relations since mid1990s in particular, commonly known as Gujral Formula. It was a major shift that was resisted from deep states of both sides. In India GF is considered as a defeatist policy while in Pakistan it is portrayed as a Clever Indian Move. B Raman, an Indian security analyst explained how Indian security establishment failed it. That article was published in Indian Defense Journal 2013. We can present similar examples against GF in Pakistan too. But interestingly a visible section of society in security establishments, high church, policy makers, media, industry, arts etc was in favor of GF across the borders too. Although Kargil, Bombay and rise of Modi ruined that process in many ways but its resonance is still in the air. It is true that both Gujral and Nawaz Sharief , both were Punjabis but keeping in mind that conflict zone regarding Pak India relations is the Punjab too because of unprecedented & hilarious communal division of the Punjab in 1947. Punjab is important due to Kashmir conflict too because both Punjab & Kashmir are interconnected in many ways since centuries. it is also a reality that State of Pakistan showed its interest in revival of India Pakistan talks especially after Bombay attack 2008.
Many actors in both countries are against this conflict and consider it share wastage of resources in poor South Asia. But KB in his article ignored all multiple reasons. I will try to pinpoint some gapes in red.
Imran Khan has reached the Prime Minister’s House and awaiting the keys to the door. That will depend on the independents or one or more smaller parties. That there was a PTI wave was obvious. The other parties are crying foul. That is to be expected. It needs to be admitted though that, despite myriad complaints – genuine in many constituencies – the elections were by and large orderly and fair across the country. (EU report and HRCP have largely exposed election 2018 well. What happened, reported after 6 pm at July 25th is recorded and no one call it Fair and Free. Pressure on media too exposed how Free were elections) Balochistan, though, is a different story.
Accepting that elections were orderly and fair on election day does not mean denying that they were not engineered. The engineering started from the time the Panama off-shore accounts story broke. In the process, the courts were pressed into service, reviving memories of judicial infamy in 1958 and in 1977. The hollowness of judgments against Nawaz Sharif and their timing will stand as a testimony to the perversion of justice in Pakistan. The media too was corralled, with a few brave souls brought to heel with uncharacteristic heavy-handedness.
Essentially, the deep state’s propaganda factory that had been in full play for over three decades in demonising the Bhutto family, now went into action against the Sharifs. At the same time, all matters that could hurt Imran Khan’s political image were assiduously kept out of the courts and the media. A popular narrative was created against Nawaz Sharif and for Imran Khan. Of course, the Sharif and Zardari governance track records stood up against them and helped Imran Khan pull off a genuine victory. (First of all Zardari or PPP took more seats from 2013 so what stood against PPP then? yes they were expecting more seats in Karachi & South Punjab but handlers ruined their dreams rather daydreams. What happened with PML(N) has been explained by the writer in above paragraph but he himself forgot it while writing. What was governance record of PTI in KPK? If we ignored D I Khan Jail break or killing of Mashal Khan, closure of accountability court etc what they did in Public education & health?)
The results of the election and the machinations behind it can now be treated as historical facts. The question that arises is why did the deep state that had mid-wifed Nawaz Sharif’s political career from the 1980s onwards, created a spurious political alliance – the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI) – in 1988 to prop him up, and handed him a two-thirds parliamentary majority in 1990 now turn against him? The answer perhaps lies in the shifting political sands in Punjab. There are two major factors and one factual correction in the shifting political stands. One is official closure of cold war in late 1980s and vanishing of hope for revival after collapse of USSR in early 1990s. 2nd is rise percentage of middle classes and emergence of new urban centers in both countries due to multiple external as well as internal factors. Factual correction was a realization that Punjab is the focal point of the conflict and one must give it priority.
For all of seven decades since independence, Punjab has been the ruling power in the country, thanks to the sheer dominance of the province in the military and the bureaucracy. Punjab was 2nd largest province in Pakistan at 14 August 1947 and Lhore was the biggest city. Lahore was no 1 with 6,72,000, Dhakka was no 2 with 4,17,00. population of Karachi was 387000. But Karachi was made first temporary capital of Pakistan. Bengalis and Punjabis were two largest nationalities in Pakistan but neither Governor General nor Prime minister was among them. ICS class majority were not from both nationalities. Punjab was historically strong from all other provinces even before annexation 1849 and during colonial period. East Bengal was weaker part of united Bengal. As pat Indian Education Register 1920-40 Punjab was far ahead in education. On top of it Punjab was 30% of united Pakistan and 56% of West Pakistan. Analyzing civil military bureaucracy on ethnic lines is problematic in many ways because they have their own power interests.
All along, the Punjab elite — over-represented in all corridors of power — has been united in terms of domestic and foreign policy that the state has pursued.
Highly biased and against facts: If one is adamant to analysis on ethnic or linguistic basis then Urdu Speaking from UP, CP etc were over representative in Pakistan from day one. Due to the minority syndrome (they had lived as minority in UP, CP etc) they were far Anti India then others in Pakistan. Rejection of diversity suited them. One language (Urdu) and one religion (Islam) theory suited them and it became part of objective resolution.
Primarily, the hawkish policy vis-à-vis India enabled the deep state to create a security state paradigm that in turn enabled the military-bureaucratic-landowner-business/industrialist sections of the Punjab elite to lay premium claims on national resources. In other words, the security paradigm framework served their core interests.
again biased comment. it is good to understand inner voices of writer well. Elite of Karachi along with their court writers sitting in capital had in mind that they were architects of Pakistan but shifting of capital disturbed their day dreaming. It was shifting of power from civil bureaucracy to military bureaucracy but KB is adamant to analyse it ethically. Anti India narrative in Pakistan and Anti Pakistan narrative in India got importance in power mechanics after 1965 war. Till early 1960s, enemy in internal war games was Japanese in both countries. it suited deep states to start cold war after 1965 war. For thekind information of KB, security paradigm framework is just continuation of old garrison state narrative known as Frontier Forward Policy during colonial times.
This unity no longer holds. The last two decades have seen the rise of a corporate elite in Punjab, with interests sharply at variance from the traditional elite. It commands a growing capital base and seeks investment opportunity abroad. It does not as yet possess the entrepreneurial and managerial capacity and sophistication to compete internationally. However, it sees opportunity in neighbouring India – and finds the state’s security paradigm blocking its way.
it is over simplification of a complex phenomenon and writer as usual over look many strong facts, i mentioned above.
Nawaz Sharif and his PML-N have come to represent Punjab’s corporate elite. His repeated attempts to reach out to India whenever he has been in power, even if for a short a period, testifies to his attempts to normalise relations. Notably, each of his attempts has been frustrated by the deep state, the most notable one being the Kargil episode.
Imran also said it because now our State policy is against confrontation and since last 10 years we want to revive dialogue with India.
Clearly, the corporate elite is now increasingly at odds with the traditional elite. The conflict of interest arises from the fact that the corporate elite sees profits in improved relations with India in terms of trade and investment opportunities. However, any such rapprochement would rob the traditional elite in the deep state of the basis and reasoning and the very logic of priority in claims on the budget. Thus, the threat from Nawaz Sharif and the need to neutralise him.
As an aside, it may be said that the current campaign against Nawaz Sharif is a product of intra-Punjab conflict.
Again a wrong rather misleading assumption. After 16 December 1971, Bhutto became sole spokesman and he was leader of the pun jab essentially. It was he who came to Lhore and founded his party as he knew its importance. From 1947 till 1971 we had witnessed a misleading fight against the majority nationality i-e East Bengalis. our state was not against Bengalis but thanks to colonial construction it was anti people and majority of people were residing in East Bengal. After 16 December 1971, State remain anti people but now majority is in the Punjab. So in the first move they cut Bhutto and the Punjab. The lesson they learned from East Pakistan crisis was much different from the lessons we want them to learn. But Bhutto knew them what they had in mind after 16 December. That is why Bhutto with the help of people like Bazenjo inculcated few smart articles in favor of provinces. Deep State had learned the lesson based on small and weak provinces. It was Zia who exposed that policy when he said that he want to make 100 provinces in Pakistan. At initial stage he had 4 major policies and all three expedite it well. 1. cut Bhutto and the Punjab 2. three against one province 3. isolate Karachi from Sindh 4. start dividing Punjab process
Bhutto was charged in killing of a Punjabi, tried in Lahore High Court and majority judges were Punjabi. Although list of Punjabi prisoners is very long in MRD but through smart intellectuals it was declared a Sindhi movement. Conflicting issues like KBD got important space in media. Although review petition of Bhutto was rejected by all the seven Judges including Durab Pateal on technical grounds but it was propagated that Punjabi judges had hanged him. Karachi was isolated smartly through MQM, PPI etc. In 1981 census Zia had introduced Seraiki as another language in the Punjab. It was also propagated that Army is Punjab so Punjab is State. So anti Punjab politics proved a shield to protect real actors. Media was main weapon to spread all those things as usual. Many people participated in spreading those things intentionally or without intention. But expulsion of Nawaz three times from power corridors itself exposed all loop wholes well. So KB failed to accept that we were too part of old misleading narratives and that is why it is easy to call it infighting of Punjabi elite rather then accept our own follies.
The other provinces that have historically challenged the power structure and generally found Punjab wanting – for example, during the MRD struggle in 1983 – are now peripheral spectators. It goes to the discredit of Nawaz Sharif, the PML-N and the corporate elite that they have failed to take the other provinces on board.
To return to the elections and the PTI’s victory, the current round has handed victory to the traditional elite in the deep state. However, the corporate elite is not a transient phenomenon. It has a strong base in terms of resources and leadership. And it is rooted in Punjab. That it will continue to assert itself is inevitable. That it will at some stage in the course of a year or so force Imran Khan’s hands is also inevitable.
link of the QB article Published in TNS is
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